Technological Shifts and Economic Evolution

Something is going to happen in the next 10 to 15 years in terms of the economy, making it very much different from what we have now. How can I say this? Well, 30 years ago we would not have understood that cell phones would have completely changed our world. And now we have AI which many say could fundamentally reshape our economy in the coming years.

The advent of cell phones is a great example of how technology can transform economies in ways that are difficult to predict at the outset. Consider how platforms like Amazon and eBay revolutionized the retail sector, allowing us to shop from anywhere. Apps like Uber, DoorDash, and Airbnb created entirely new industries and ways of working. Financial transactions became faster and more accessible, enabling people even in remote areas to participate in the economy. These advancements were not just about convenience. They redefined the flow of money, labor, and resources in the global economy.

Now, as we stand at the dawn of the AI era, we don’t yet fully understand how it will reshape the economy. However, we can already see glimpses of its potential. AI is automating tasks in industries like manufacturing, customer service, and healthcare. While this could lead to job displacement in some areas, it may also create demand for new jobs in AI development, data analysis, and ethical oversight. Businesses are using AI to offer highly personalized services (e.g., Netflix recommendations, targeted ads). ChatGPT or AI assistants are helping people write, code, and create more efficiently, boosting productivity. AI can analyze massive datasets to help businesses and governments make better decisions, from supply chain logistics to climate change strategies.

Just as cell phones enabled the gig economy, AI might enable entirely new industries based on autonomous systems. Think of self-driving cars and drone delivery or creative economies such as AI-generated art, music, and storytelling.

When it comes to a new economy, this shift could take 10-15 years. During this period, there will likely be a push for education and training to help people adapt to the new economy. Governments and organizations will need to address issues like data privacy, bias in AI systems, and the potential for monopolies. Just as the gig economy changed the concept of employment, the AI-driven economy might redefine what "work" means. Creativity, problem-solving, and emotional intelligence could become more valued. And don't be surprised if currently developing countries suddenly leapfrog traditional stages of industrialization by adopting AI technologies directly, potentially reducing global inequality.

What makes the prospect of an AI-driven economy both exciting and unsettling is the unknown. Just as no one in the 1990s could have predicted how much cell phones would transform the world, we can’t fully predict how AI will evolve or what opportunities it will unlock. However, one thing is clear: change is coming, and those who adapt, innovate, and stay curious will be best positioned to thrive.

There is a key truth in that technology doesn’t just improve tools; it transforms societies. The cell phone is proof of that, and AI could be the next chapter in the story. While the future is uncertain, it’s also full of potential.